Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine: No Deaths Prevented Over Six Months

Alea iacta est

I ran across a pre-print placebo-controlled scientific study looking at results of Pfizer-BionTec vaccination over the course six months. The primary take-home point for me is that the vaccine did not prevent death. Mysteriously, the study authors didn’t discuss the lack of death prevention by the vaccine; I found the data in Figure 1. The vaccine did prevent severe COVID-19 disease.

The scientific name for this particular vaccine is BNT162b2.

Remember that Big Pharma and the CDC have been telling us since November 2020 that the COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective (~90% or better) in preventing severe disease and death.

The study at hand looked at 22,000 folks who got two doses of the vaccine and another 22,000 who got a saline placebo. There were 16 deaths in the vaccine group, 15 in placebo.

Thirty-one participants met the CDC’s definition of severe COVID-19; 30 of these were in the placebo group. So the odds of developing severe COVID-19 over six months if not vaccinated were 0.136%. Or one in 735. (Tell me if my math is wrong.) I fully expect the odds are higher if elderly, lower if young.

Among the vaccinated, 77 developed COVID-19. The placebo group had 850 cases. The report doesn’t state a definition of a “COVID-19 case.” I presume a positive PCR nasal swab and one or more of the usual symptoms. Maddeningly, when the mainstream media mentions a case count, the number may include folks with a positive PCR swab but no symptoms.

Most participants were enrolled between August and October 2020. The U.S. had a major spike in cases in January 2021. The data cut-off date for this study was March 31, 2021, so many of the participants had significant exposure. Median age for both groups was 51. 76% of participants were in the U.S.

The authors note that the risk of developing COVID-19 in the vaccinated tended to rise over time. Vaccine effectiveness declined about 6% every two months. A booster vaccination might be recommended at some point. Pfizer’s CEO revealed this a couple months ago.

For all I know, the linked-to pre-print article above is a hoax. These data are not going to help Pfizer sell more vaccine! If the pre-print is legit, I assume Pfizer was somehow compelled to publish the results.

This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.

Steve Parker, M.D.

h/t The Last Refuge or


Filed under Coronavirus

5 responses to “Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine: No Deaths Prevented Over Six Months

  1. Richard David Feinman

    Your headline is misleading. Your statistic is misleading. Benefit is clear. Viral infection does not have the predictability of physical science.

    • VKSnTexas

      I’m not so sure that “the benefit is clear.” How many of the covid deaths were in patients who were fully treated with the appropriate medications (hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, zinc, ivermectin, plus steroids such as dexamethasone if coughing or chest pain became a problem)? Versus patients who were simply told to take tylenol, drink fluids and rest?

      • Assuming the Pfizer folks didn’t fudge the numbers, their vaccine did seem to prevent about 30 cases of “severe disease” among the 22,000 vaccinees. That’s one clear benefit. You have to vaccinate 733 people to prevent one case of severe disease. Is that worth it, particularly if an individual doesn’t want the vaccine? That’s part of the global debate we’re having now.

    • 22,000 in experimental vaccine group. 22,000 in control group. Essentially same number of deaths in each group. I don’t know what I’m missing. Yes, the numbers would be more reliable if there were 100,000 subjects in each group.
      Looking forward to similar six-month study of the Moderna vaccine and sincerely hoping it does better than Pfizer’s.

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